
New economic modeling from BT and Assembly Research reveals that migrating the UK's Critical National Infrastructure from outdated analogue networks to digital infrastructure could deliver a £3 billion net economic benefit by 2040. The research evaluated costs, risks, and potential gains across five key sectors: energy, water, health (NHS), emergency services, and local government. The study accounts for both the direct costs of upgrading and the rising expenses of maintaining legacy systems like the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) and 2G mobile network.
The urgency for digital migration is underscored by Ofcom data showing a 45% rise in resilience incidents on the PSTN. BT Business CEO Jon James emphasized that delaying the shift to digital carries real costs to public services, the environment, and the wider economy. The PSTN retirement is scheduled for January 2027, with regulators urging migration by the end of 2025. BT has already migrated 300,000 legacy PSTN lines in 2024, but the UK risks falling behind European counterparts like Germany, Spain, and France.
Beyond financial gains, the report highlights significant societal and environmental benefits. By 2040, digital migration could prevent 750,000 unnecessary ambulance trips, free up 12 million hours of council staff time, and save over 600,000 NHS staff hours. It could also avoid up to 280,000 false fire service callouts and cut 3.42 megatonnes of carbon emissions—equivalent to powering every home in Birmingham for a year.
Sector-specific projections indicate substantial savings, with the energy sector poised to gain £1.4 billion through improved resilience and outage prevention. Local governments could save £486 million by modernizing telecare systems, while emergency services and the NHS would benefit from fewer false alarms and more efficient response systems. Matthew Howett, CEO of Assembly Research, stressed that while some sectors are advancing, broader adoption is vital to avoid growing costs and missed efficiency gains.

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